FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK: WEEK OF JUNE 22, 2025

Executive Summary

Financial markets are at a critical juncture as the second quarter of 2025 concludes, with monthly and quarterly candle closures shaping the trajectory for Q3. This report, tailored for hedge fund managers and sophisticated investors, provides a detailed analysis of cryptocurrencies, U.S. equities, and forex markets. Key focus areas include high-probability trade setups, risk management, and macroeconomic drivers, leveraging technical patterns, fundamental catalysts, and intermarket correlations. Bitcoin remains a standout in the crypto space with a bullish setup, though risks persist below key support. U.S. equities, driven by tech giants like Microsoft and Apple, demonstrate resilience amid geopolitical volatility, fueled by strong earnings and AI sector growth. Forex markets exhibit complacency, with EUR/USD and USD/JPY presenting actionable setups. The quarterly candle open on July 1, 2025, will set the tone for Q3, with a comprehensive outlook scheduled for June 29, 2025 livestream.

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC): Technical Setup and Risk Parameters

• Monthly Candle Closure and Market Structure

  Bitcoin’s monthly candle, currently an inside candle, is pivotal as the quarter ends. The swing low at $93,377 serves as a critical invalidation line for bullish setups. A break below this level would signal a bearish shift on weekly and monthly timeframes, potentially targeting $85,000 due to a lack of support in the $85,000–$93,377 range, a hollow region from a prior pump candle. The probability of this bearish outcome is estimated at 10–15%, with the base case favoring a hold above $93,377.

• Pullback and Trade Opportunity

  Following a pullback from its all-time high of $109,588, Bitcoin is testing an untested support/resistance (SR) level at $97,895, derived from a weekly chart’s inefficient price action zone ($97,895–$100,718). This zone, marked by a prior straight-line pump, is being retested on low weekend liquidity, increasing the likelihood of a reversal. A limit order for a long position at $97,895 is recommended, with two stop-loss options:

• Day Trade: Stop loss at $95,784, targeting the first resistance (first trouble area, FTA) at $101,839, offering a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.

• Swing Trade: Stop loss at $93,377, targeting all-time highs, though this is less favored due to the quarterly candle close.

The hourly chart’s bullish engulfing pattern reinforces the setup, but a break below $95,784 could trigger a slide to $93,377 or lower, signaling a major market top with implications for equities.

IBIT and Liquidity Dynamics

• The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), a key liquidity driver for Bitcoin, is closed over weekends, missing Bitcoin’s 3.5–4% downside from Friday’s close.

• IBIT’s confirmed inside two-week and three-week candles align with Bitcoin’s support at $97,895, suggesting a gap down on Monday will close inefficiencies, offering a long opportunity targeting $101,839.

• A breach of $95,784 increases the risk of a deeper correction, potentially invalidating the bullish case.

Strategic Considerations

• With the monthly and quarterly candles closing, risk management is paramount.

• Day trading is preferred over swing positions to avoid exposure to candle resets.

• The upcoming quarterly outlook on June 29, 2025, will detail strategies for riding the Q3 candle, drawing from historical breakouts like November 2024’s consolidation exit.

BTCUSD TRADE SETUP SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Ethereum (ETH): Bearish Patterns and Structural Weakness

• Price Action and Technical Concerns

  Ethereum’s rapid decline before the quarterly candle close is alarming, driven by a weekly pattern of inside candles trapping long liquidity without follow-through. A short position targeting $2,333–$2,349, as recommended previously, materialized swiftly, testing a weekly and quarterly SR level. A close below this SR level invalidates the bullish case for Ethereum and altcoins, as it flips a critical support into resistance across multiple timeframes.

• Inefficient Price Action and Market Structure

  The prior rally to $2,750 was a straight-line pump without pullbacks, likened to a “Ponzi-like pump,” leaving no support zones and facilitating the current liquidation. Efficient bullish price action, characterized by higher highs and higher lows with regular pullbacks, is absent. The market structure shifted bearish with a lower low at $2,115, and any bounce is expected to form a lower high unless $2,568 is reclaimed, signaling a bullish shift.

• Resistance Zone and Short Opportunity

  A bearish order block at $2,466–$2,485 (weekly, two-week, three-week) is likely to cap bounces, favoring shorts with a target of $2,150 or lower. The ETH/BTC pair’s lower high and inside weekly failure underscore Ethereum’s weakness, driven by capital flows to Bitcoin. The host recommends sidelining Ethereum until the quarterly candle closes above $2,150, with a potential consolidation phase through September 2025 before a bullish leg from October to March 2026.

ETHUSD 3-WEEK OUTLOOK SNAPSHOT - TradingView
ETHUSD DAILY OUTLOOK SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Solana (SOL)

A monthly bearish order block targets the inside monthly candle low at $78, with a resistance zone at $141 offering a short setup (6:1 risk-reward ratio). The $78–$60 range is ideal for long-term spot accumulation, with a 3.5:1 reward ratio for a hold until 2028, leveraging the next bull cycle.

SOLUSD DAILY OUTLOOK SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Sui (SUI)

Sui’s prior short setup, based on a daily resistance zone with no support, led to a sharp decline. A bottoming range of $0.4–$1.1 is recommended for accumulation, capitalizing on stop-loss liquidity below current levels. Both altcoins mirror Ethereum’s correction, with bearish price action dominating until a broader market recovery.

SUIUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Crypto Market Outlook

Ethereum’s bearish price action drives altcoin weakness, with Bitcoin offering the most reliable exposure. Capital allocation favors Bitcoin over altcoins, particularly post the Genesis Act, which boosts stablecoin adoption but diminishes altcoin relevance. The quarterly candle close will dictate Q3 positioning, with detailed strategies forthcoming on June 29, 2025.

U.S. Equities Market Analysis

Macro Context and Geopolitical Noise

The U.S.-Iran conflict introduces short-term volatility, with NASDAQ futures gapping down 1–1.5% (170 points to 21,476) on June 22, 2025. However, tech-heavy indices are resilient, as top constituents (Microsoft, NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, Meta), controlling 45% of NASDAQ’s weight, are insulated from Middle East disruptions. The Russia-Ukraine war precedent (February 2022) saw a 3% intraday drop recover to a 6.7% gain in seven days, suggesting markets will shake off current jitters by focusing on fundamentals like July earnings.

NASDAQ: Technical Setup and Risk Management

Quarterly Candle and Support Levels

The NASDAQ’s quarterly candle, up 14.4%, is overextended compared to historical pushes (11–13.6%). New highs are unlikely this week, but a close above 21,120 (three-week low) maintains bullish momentum. A support zone at 21,364–21,306 offers a long setup:

• Entry: 21,364

• Stop Loss: Below 21,000 (three-week low at 21,120)

• Target: All-time highs at 22,250

• Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.7:1

A break below 21,000 risks filling a gap lower, invalidating the bullish case. Recovery is expected by London Open, with Nikkei’s performance (holding 37,272) as a sentiment gauge.

NAS100 3-WEEK OUTLOOK SNAPSHOT - TradingView
NAS100 DAILY OUTLOOK SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Nikkei Correlation

• The NASDAQ-Nikkei correlation, driven by Japan’s 0.25–0.5% interest rates versus the U.S.’s 4%, synchronizes index movements.

• U.S. investors leverage Japan’s low rates to borrow yen, convert to USD, and invest in mega-growth companies (e.g., NVIDIA, Broadcom, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon), accessing cheap capital while bypassing stricter U.S. lending standards (federal funds rate at 4.25%). This dynamic strengthens the Nikkei-NASDAQ linkage.

• Nikkei’s inside quarterly candle failure supports upside, with NASDAQ outperforming in tandem. Divergences, like NASDAQ’s lower low versus Nikkei’s higher low in April 2025, yielded a 6% move, highlighting cross-index opportunities. A NASDAQ breakdown requires Nikkei breakdown confirmation below the three-week candle low of 37,272.

NAS100 vs Nikkei Index SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Key Equities: Microsoft, Apple, Coinbase, Tesla

Microsoft: AI-Driven Growth

Microsoft’s 40% quarterly candle, one of the strongest observed, is fueled by a 5x AI sector revenue increase ($25 billion in 2016 to $105 billion in 2024). Its 13% NASDAQ weight drives index performance, tech ETFs (XLK), and related sectors. AI innovation ripples to companies like Palantir (1900% growth) and recent IPOs:

• Circle Internet Financial: Up 288% since its June 5, 2025, debut, driven by USD Coin (USDC) issuance, crypto-friendly regulations (e.g., EU’s MiCA, Canada’s listing rules), and digital finance enthusiasm.

• CoreWeave (CRWV): Surged 445% in three months since debut, fueled by $13.5 billion in private funding and debt since mid-2023, positioning it as a key AI cloud player.

Microsoft’s earnings momentum overshadows geopolitical concerns, positioning it as a generational investment akin to its 2015–2016 social media boom.

MSFT 3-MONTH OUTLOOK SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Apple: Services and Technical Breakout

• Apple’s triple inside three-week candle, unprecedented since the 1980s, signals a breakout with historical precedence for 139% gains in 200 days. This consolidation, rare since Apple’s December 12, 1980, IPO, is overlooked amid AI sector mania, making it a lucrative technical play.

• The services sector, nearing 50% of iPhone revenue with 15–20% annual growth, offsets hardware saturation. Apple’s AI strategy—enabling developers via iOS (e.g., 30% Spotify revenue share)—ensures ecosystem dominance.

• A technical gap fill setup offers 20% upside.For the fiscal year 2024, ending September 28, 2024 earnings revenue reported was a whopping $391 billion, alongside ~$50 billion in cash for corporate buybacks, supports long-term growth.

AAPL 3-WEEK CONSOLIDATION SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Coinbase: Stablecoin Catalyst

• Coinbase’s 18% rally follows the Genius Act, which establishes the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins (eg. USDC and USDT), which is key part of Coinbase commerce platform to integrate blockchain based payments for businesses.

• The act aims to integrate stablecoins into the mainstream financial system, making it the first ever regulation being introduced to implement crypto based payment methods.

• This positions Coinbase to disrupt Visa and Mastercard, leveraging blockchain for global transactions. The act benefits Bitcoin and crypto companies but sidelines altcoins, reinforcing Bitcoin’s dominance. Coinbase is a high-conviction long, capturing mainstream crypto adoption.

COIN WEEKLY SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Tesla: Long-Term Opportunity

Tesla’s double inside weekly and inside monthly candles suggest a 20–30% drop to $270, ideal for a buy-and-hold position. An ascending triangle and inside quarterly candle failure signal a future breakout, driven by AI innovations like Robotaxis. A $270 entry targets multi-year highs, leveraging Tesla’s long-term growth narrative.

TSLA WEEKLY SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Equity Market Outlook

U.S. equities are poised for a strong Q3, driven by July earnings and portfolio rebalancing. Tech giants’ AI and services growth, coupled with stablecoin adoption, overshadow geopolitical risks. NASDAQ’s support at 21,364–21,306 and Nikkei’s 37,272 are critical, with long setups favoring upside capture. The quarterly outlook on June 29, 2025, will refine Q3 strategies, focusing on high-timeframe trends and money supply dynamics.

Forex Market Analysis

EUR/USD: Complacency and Upside Bias

Technical Patterns

EUR/USD’s inside weekly candle during an FOMC meeting reflects market complacency, expecting no Federal Reserve action. An upside move is anticipated to test the inside weekly candle high, with a monthly candle close above 1.14185 signaling continuation of the inside monthly candle. A close below 1.14185 confirms a failure, shifting the bias bearish. A strong quarterly candle close supports Q3 upside.

EURUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Trade Strategy

A weekly candle failure offers a long opportunity at lower levels, targeting the monthly high. Investors should monitor the quarterly candle close for confirmation, with risk managed around 1.14185.

USD/JPY: Short Setup at Resistance

Technical Setup

A double inside monthly candle indicates tight price action, with a potential rally to the quarterly SR level at 151.946 in July or August offering a short setup:

• Entry: 151.946

• Stop Loss: Above the weekly candle high

• Target: 139.89

• Risk-Reward Ratio: 4:1

USDJPY MONTHLY OUTLOOK SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Macro Considerations

Significant downside requires declining U.S. ten-year yields, currently sideways. The setup’s viability hinges on yield dynamics, with the short favored only at the SR level.

Gold and Silver: Long Opportunities

Gold

An inside monthly candle failure could retest $3,120, a level for long entries given the super bullish trend of higher highs and lows. The super cycle trend supports waiting for pullbacks to join the uptrend.

GOLD MONTHLY SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Silver

An inside three-month candle failure, closing above $34.580–$34.860, sets up a long on a retest of this support zone. Silver is monitored for commodity currency insights (e.g., AUD/USD) but is not a primary trading focus.

AUD/USD: Range-Bound Frustration

Market Behavior

AUD/USD’s range-bound action stopped out a short position targeting 0.63567 after 21 days. The pair’s “moody” wicking reflects a lack of trend, with further downside anticipated but participation avoided due to prior losses.

AUDUSD 2-WEEK SNAPSHOT - TradingView

Strategic Approach

The host prefers Bitcoin, NASDAQ, S&P 500, gold, USD/JPY, and EUR/USD, sidelining AUD/USD until September 2025 when clearer setups may emerge.

Forex Market Outlook

Forex markets are subdued, with EUR/USD and USD/JPY offering the clearest setups. Gold and silver provide long opportunities on pullbacks, while AUD/USD is avoided due to its range-bound nature. The quarterly candle close will clarify Q3 trends, with Nikkei’s overnight performance as a risk-on indicator.

Strategic Recommendations

1. Bitcoin: Enter a day trade long at $97,895 (stop loss $95,784, target $101,839) to capture short-term upside. Monitor $93,377 for bearish invalidation, prioritizing risk management as quarterly candles close.

2. Ethereum and Altcoins: Stay sidelined on Ethereum unless $2,150 holds post-quarterly close. Short Solana at $141 (target $78) and accumulate Sui at $0.4–$1.1 for long-term holds.

3. NASDAQ: Long at 21,364–21,306 (stop loss 21,000, target 22,250) if support holds post-gap down. Confirm with Nikkei’s 37,272 level.

4. Equities: Favor Microsoft, Apple, Coinbase, and Tesla (at $270) for their AI, services, and stablecoin-driven growth. Apple’s 20% gap fill is a high-probability technical play.

5. Forex: Long EUR/USD on a weekly candle failure, targeting the monthly high if 1.14185 holds. Short USD/JPY at 151.946 (target 139.89) if yields soften. Long gold at $3,120 and silver at $34.580–$34.860 on pullbacks.

6. Risk Management: Prioritize day trades over swing positions this week to navigate candle closures. Use three-week lows (NASDAQ 21,120, Nikkei 37,272, Bitcoin $93,377) as hard stops.

Conclusion

The week of June 22, 2025, marks a pivotal moment for financial markets, with quarterly candle closures setting the stage for Q3. Bitcoin presents tactical opportunities, while Ethereum and altcoins demand caution. U.S. equities, led by tech giants, are poised for resilience, driven by earnings and AI growth. Forex markets offer selective setups, with gold and silver as safe-haven complements. The quarterly outlook on June 29, 2025, will provide a high-timeframe roadmap, leveraging technical, fundamental, and intermarket insights for optimal capital allocation.

Note: Investors should independently verify data, particularly on IBIT’s liquidity role, NASDAQ weightings, Microsoft’s AI revenue, Apple’s services revenue, and Coinbase’s rally.

Speculators Edge
June 22nd, 2025

http://www.speculatorstrading.com/